Bowl projections: Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, Arizona State headline first 12-team College Football Playoff

Another thrilling Championship Week in college football has come and gone, which means it’s time for one final College Football Playoff projections before the first-ever 12-team bracket is released on Sunday. Let’s start at the top.  

Oregon has been the No. 1 team in the College Football Playoff Rankings since the very beginning, and the Ducks will enter the CFP in that exact spot. The Ducks will be the top seed in the field after beating Penn State 45-37 for the Big Ten championship on Saturday. Oregon is the lone remaining undefeated team in college football, so this is an easy call for the committee. The Ducks will play their quarterfinal in the Rose Bowl.

No. 5 Georgia knocked off second-ranked Texas 22-19 in overtime for the SEC championship in Atlanta in an epic battle that saw the Bulldogs change quarterbacks after starter Carson Beck was injured right before halftime. Beck came back in to hand off on the final play of the game after his backup, Gunner Stockton, was injured during the overtime period.

The Bulldogs should be ranked second and earn the No. 2 seed in the CFP. They will play their first game in the Sugar Bowl.

Texas should not suffer too badly after the loss, however. I expect the Longhorns to stay ahead of Notre Dame for the No. 5 spot in the rankings and earn the 5-seed in the field. Typically, teams that lose competitive conference championship games to lower-ranked teams do not suffer too badly when the final rankings are released, but the Longhorns lost as the higher-ranked team. Georgia will, of course, jump them, but there is no real reason for Texas to fall behind the other teams below them.

Penn State is projected to slot in at No. 4 in the rankings and host a first-round game as a 6-seed following the loss to Oregon. The Nittany Lions only lose a spot because Georgia jumped them.

Notre Dame will still be the top ranked of the teams that were idle this weekend. CFP committee chair Warde Manual said this week that the teams not playing would be kept in the same order among themselves as last week in the final rankings released on Sunday. He also noted that those teams could see their rankings change as teams that did play move about in the rankings. This is how the committee has always operated, but it is the first time a committee chairman said it out loud.

Quarterfinals

First round

Much to the dismay of ACC commissioner Jim Phillips, No. 8 SMU is projected to drop out of the CFP field after a heartbreaking 34-31, last-second loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. The Tigers may or may not jump SMU in the rankings, but I am projecting that they will. It doesn’t really matter, though; either way, I have the Mustangs dropping below Alabama, and that is all it takes to keep them out.

Clemson’s win is a boon for Arizona State, which will now get the fourth bye and seed as the fourth highest-ranked conference champion. The Tigers now assume that fifth automatic qualifying place and will be the 12-seed in the CFP. I am projecting the Sun Devils to finish in the top 12, but all that matters is that they finish ahead of Clemson.

The third conference champion to earn a bye is Boise State. The Broncos capped off a 12-1 season with a 21-7 win over No. 20 UNLV in the Mountain West Championship Game, which gave Boise State a home-and-home sweep of the Rebels. I am projecting the Broncos to pass Indiana for the No. 8 spot in the rankings after Ohio State and Tennessee because of the quality of their wins. Boise State has the two ranked wins over UNLV plus two other wins over teams with at least eight wins.  

When the Broncos played at Oregon, the best team in this field, the game went to the wire with Boise State falling three points short. None of these qualities apply to Indiana, although the Hoosiers still have the second best average margin of victory in the nation, only .03 ppg behind Ohio State. Note that Boise State passing Indiana does not change either team’s CFP seed from last week because the Broncos get a bye.

The rest of the playoff field is filled with the Hoosiers and Alabama as the 10 and 11 seeds.

Be sure to check back on Sunday morning for the full list of Jerry Palm’s bowl projections.