College Football Playoff expert picks: Alabama or SMU in last spot? Notre Dame, Texas or Penn State at No. 5?

The SMU versus Alabama debate for the final at-large bid in the 2025 College Football Playoff has understandably stolen the spotlight entering Selection Sunday. There is also significant consternation about how the first few teams outside the top four conference champions will be decided. Ultimately, how the committee interprets those league title game results will have ripple effects throughout the field. 

Let’s start with the debate over the final at-large bid.

Alabama held that spot in last Tuesday’s penultimate CFP Rankings, and it looked in good shape to maintain that slot after CFP chairman Warde Manuel said the rankings were locked for teams not playing conference championship weekend.

However, there was a doomsday scenario: Clemson pulling off an upset over SMU in the ACC Championship Game with the Mustangs playing well enough to warrant a spot in the field.

Unfortunately for the Crimson Tide, that’s exactly what happened Saturday night. Clemson freshman kicker Nolan Hauser’s 56-yard walk-off game-winning field goal not only propelled the Tigers into the field as an automatic qualifier but gave SMU a more-than-reasonable chance to receive an at-large bid.

SMU (11-2) has fewer losses than Alabama (9-3) but exists in a similar space as Miami (FL) in that it lacks resume-boosting wins. The Mustangs are 0-2 against top 25 opponents, while Alabama has a 3-1 record against teams, including a win over newly crowned SEC champion Georgia. Furthermore, Alabama’s strength of schedule (18th) is considerably better than that of SMU (75th) as the Tide’s opponents had a combined record of 82-50 while the Mustangs’ were 83-75. 

The SMU case? Well, it went undefeated during ACC regular-season play (8-0), and its two losses are nowhere near as bad as Alabama’s 21-point defeat to 6-6 Oklahoma (in which Bama scored 3 points) or its road loss to 6-6 Vanderbilt. SMU’s wins against Louisville and Pittsburgh were notable at the time, too. 

If Alabama ranked a spot above Miami in the penultimate CFP Rankings, one could surmise it deserves to hold the same spot when compared head-to-head against SMU given the argument is identical. And that may be exactly what happens!

However, SMU finished as a Power Four conference runner-up in a tightly-contested ACC title game it lost 34-31. If the CFP Selection Committee completely dropped SMU out of the field, it would set a dangerous precedent for conference championship games, which are generally major money makers for leagues. It would essentially incentivize teams to not seek out those opportunities so as not to lose and potentially fall all the way out of the playoff field.

Alabama got the benefit of the doubt last season as it received the final spot over undefeated Florida State in a decision that still roils the ACC. This time around, the ACC has a better chance of bouncing an SEC team out for the last at-large bid. 

How will the top three at-large bids shake out?

The committee doesn’t simply have to decide what to do with ACC championship loser SMU. It also needs to figure out where to put one-loss Notre Dame, SEC runner-up Texas and Big Ten runner-up Penn State. The Fighting Irish were No. 4 in the penultimate CFP Rankings, while the Longhorns were No. 2 (slated for a first-round bye with an SEC win) and the Nittany Lions placed No. 3 as the second Big Ten team behind No. 1 Oregon.

Texas (11-2) lost to Georgia, 24-19, in the first SEC title game to reach overtime, a contest the Longhorns easily could have won. Penn State (11-2) fell to the Ducks in a one-score 45-37 loss. And then you have Notre Dame (11-1), which did not play Saturday but in theory could slide up if Texas and Penn State both move down.

Texas’ only two losses are to Georgia, giving it the best defeats of the group; however, Penn State’s two losses (Ohio State, Oregon) are in the same neighborhood. Notre Dame has by far the worst loss to Northern Illinois (7-5), a seventh-place MAC team. That it came at home, too, making it the worst loss of any CFP contender. 

The ‘Horns are 0-2 against top 25 opponents, a major knock on their resume. The Nittany Lions hold a singular top 25 win (No. 19 Illinois), while the Irish only possesses one top 25 win over AAC champion Army West Point (No. 24). Army’s win Friday night over Tulane only strengthens ND’s argument. 

Just like with Alabama and SMU, it will be interesting to see whether the committee chooses to penalize teams that competed in league title games, especially ones that were extremely close. Notre Dame has been steadily moving up the rankings in recent weeks, and there’s an argument it should jump Texas and Penn State. It almost certainly would in a normal week. 

However, in this scenario, it feels more likely that the committee will keep Texas and Penn State ahead of Notre Dame. That’s not an insignificant decision, either, given how the field is shaping up.

If Notre Dame ends up as the No. 7 seed, that sets up a possible quarterfinal against No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. If Notre Dame instead receives the No. 5 or No. 6 seed, it would likely play Boise State or Arizona State in a quarterfinal.

The tougher question will be how the committee weighs Texas versus Penn State. The resumes are fairly similar, and both lost marquee conference championship games by single scores. Texas was ranked higher than Penn State entering Saturday night, which might end up being the slight edge that puts the ‘Horns in the No. 5 seed.

Keep on reading for expert picks on slots No. 5-7 in the College Football Playoff field along with which team our CBS Sports college football writers believe will receive the final at-large bid. You can also check out a complete slate of 2024-25 bowl projections from bowls expert Jerry Palm.

College Football Playoff projection

The top two seeds of the CFP are all but a formality after Oregon remained undefeated by beating Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game and Georgia knocked off Texas for the second time this season to win the SEC Championship Game. Boise State (Mountain West) and Arizona State (Big 12) will be the other conference champions who receive byes given Clemson (ACC) has three losses.

While there is an argument that the Sun Devils should be the No. 3 seed above the Broncos, ASU was ranked five spots lower in the penultimate CFP Rankings. As such, bowls experts Jerry Palm and Brad Crawford both agree the top four seeds — each receiving first-round byes — will shake out as follows:

1. Oregon (13-0)
2. Georgia (11-2)
3. Boise State (12-1)
4. Arizona State (11-2)

College Football Playoff expert picks

Here’s how our college football staff would vote in the key spots — choosing teams Nos. 5-7 and the last at-large bid in the field — if they were members of the CFP Selection Committee.