College Football Playoff snubs, surprises: Oregon has brutal path as reward for No. 1 seed, Notre Dame stung

The first 12-team College Football Playoff field is set as the selection committee unveiled their final rankings Sunday afternoon, one day after an eventful slate of conference championship games. Oregon went wire-to-wire as the No. 1 team and, subsequently, earned the top overall seed after downing Penn State in its Big Ten Championship Game debut. 

Elsewhere, some of the top teams in the country received first-round bids. Texas will host Clemson in a battle between two prolific programs, while Ohio State hosts Tennessee in a clash between two Big Ten and SEC titans. 

Though the rest of the field (mostly) matched external expectations, there were a couple of notable surprises, and one major snub, in the final rankings.  

Surprised: Oregon has such a difficult path 

Normally, tournament formats are structured so that the top overall seed, or seeds, have a lighter path until deeper into the bracket. So it’s understandable if folks around Oregon are feeling a little put off right now. 

The Ducks, who are the only undefeated FBS team, might just have the hardest path among the playoff’s 12 teams. Sure, they earned a first-round bye, but then they’ll play their first playoff game against the winner between No. 8 seed Ohio State and No. 9 seed Tennessee. 

Oregon is, obviously, familiar with Ohio State. The two met in the regular season and the Ducks walked out with a signature 32-31 victory. Tennessee can’t be discounted. The Vols boast one of the nation’s top defenses and an offense that started to hit its stride near the end of the year. 

Oh, and SEC runner-up Texas is also on Oregon’s side of the bracket. So is an Arizona State team that beat previously top-20 Iowa State by 26 points in the Big 12 Championship Game. 

Nothing’s going to come easy for the Ducks as they embark on a hunt for the program’s first national title. Good for coach Dan Lanning for embracing this draw in his post-announcement interviews, but somebody’s got to do some whining for Oregon. 

Snubbed: Notre Dame for No. 5 seed

Some might assume that there’s not much difference between seeds five through eight. All four teams get to host a first-round game against a lesser-ranked opponent, and then all four — assuming they take care of business — have to go play a conference champion. 

But the No. 5 seed — in this case Texas — has a distinct advantage. The Longhorns play No. 12 seed Clemson, the only three-loss team in the field, in the first round and then would face off against Big 12 champion Arizona State in the second round. 

Even No. 6 seed Penn State has a manageable path. Then there’s No. 7 seed Notre Dame, which had a case for the No. 5 seed after going 11-1 in the regular season. In fact, the Fighting Irish were a trendy pick to claim the No. 5 seed. 

Unlike Penn State and Texas, Notre Dame has a win against a currently ranked team. The Irish also lead the FBS with an average scoring margin of plus-26.3 points. 

It’s hard to discuss Notre Dame without mentioning its loss to Northern Illinois. It’s the worst loss on a playoff team’s record, and it’s the main reason why the Irish fell so far behind. Still, there’s an argument to be made that Notre Dame did enough to bury the residual Northern Illinois embarrassment and rise to the top at-large spot. 

Instead, the Irish have to play 11-1 Indiana in the first round for a right to showdown against No. 2 seed and SEC champion Georgia. That’s the difference a couple of spots make. 

Surprised: Committee made right decision with SMU 

SMU opened itself up to punishment when it lost the ACC Championship Game. Debates raged overnight whether or not the Mustangs still deserved a spot, even though they finished the year 0-2 against currently ranked teams and lagged behind other at-large candidates in the all-important strength of schedule metric. 

SMU’s top threat was Alabama, which went 9-3 in the regular season, lost twice to unranked teams (including one 21-point defeat against Oklahoma, which finished the year 2-6 in SEC play), and did not earn the right to play in a conference championship game. 

Obviously, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee went with SMU. It was the right — and entirely surprising — decision. 

The committee has arbitrarily punished seemingly deserving teams in the past. Notably, 13-0 ACC champion Florida State was left out of the field in 2023, largely due to an injury to starting quarterback Jordan Travis, in favor of two-loss Alabama. 

Selection committee chairman Warde Manuel even said after the penultimate rankings release that SMU would “potentially” get left out of the College Football Playoff if it lost the ACC Championship Game. That’s why the Mustangs, with a fully healthy quarterback in Kevin Jennings, were worried.

Fortunately for SMU, it had no real need to stew over its fate, even if outside buzz suggested otherwise. 

MORE: Opening lines for CFP games have Texas as two-score favorite over Clemson